The Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy

Progressive Dialogue and Policy for a Better Canada

THE MIDDLE CLASS 2015 (Toronto Jan 15)

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January 15, 2015

THE MIDDLE CLASS 2015 (Toronto Jan 15)

By Craig Worden and Andrew Cardozo

Who is the middle class?

(For the full report: http://www.pollara.com/pollara-pearson-centre-study-searching-middle-class-canadians-financial-stress/)

When asked to choose which classification best describes their social and financial place in society, half (52%) of Canadians identified as Middle Class, followed by more than a third (36%) who identified as Working Class. About one-in-ten (9%) identified as Poor and 3% identified as Upper Class.
• Quebecers (73%) were much more likely to identify as Middle Class, followed by Alberta (57%), the Prairies (Manitoba/Saskatchewan) (47%), BC (46%), the Atlantic provinces (44%), and Ontario (43%).
• Men (57%) were more likely than women (47%) to identify as Middle Class.
• Canadians in the $100,000+ (74%) and $60,000-$100,000 (67%) household income brackets were more likely to identify as Middle Class than those in the $20,000-$60,000 (34%) and Under $20,000 (14%) brackets. Notably, just 10% of those in the $100,000+ income bracket identified as Upper Class.
• Among those identifying as Middle Class, 52% were employed full-time, 60% were parents, and 82% were homeowners.
Among the most troubling findings in the study, was a significant lack of public confidence that merit-based social mobility exists in Canadian society and a significant lack of optimism about the future of the Canadian Middle Class. Only 49% agreed that they were confident that they could move beyond their current socio-economic class through hard work – with just 10% strongly agreeing with this sentiment. And, just 45% agreed that they were optimistic about the future of the Canadian Middle Class – again, with few (8%) expressing strong agreement. So, the much-vaunted “Middle Class” is no longer the attractive, accessible destination it once was. This acts as an obstacle of cynicism and negativity for those pursuing fading aspirational notions.
• Notably, only 20% of the self-identified Poor (20%) are confident about merit-based social mobility. The Working Class (47%) and Middle Class (53%) are split. Seven-in-ten (73%) of those identifying as Upper Class are confident.
• Just a quarter (24%) of the self-identified Poor are optimistic about the future of the Middle Class. The Working Class (45%) and Middle Class (48%) are split. The Upper Class (62%) are most likely to be optimistic.
As politicans and policy wonks go forth into 2015, our study waves a caution flag when invoking “The Middle Class”. Such an appeal makes logical sense in terms of both politics and policy, but it cannot be a simple appeal to a group of people representing just half of Canadians. The Middle Class needs to be seen as a secure, attractive, attainable home and destination – as it once was. We can return to this perspective with policies that strengthen and expand The Middle Class. Policies that relieve financial stress are a logical first step, with the added benefit that they speak to the challenges and concerns of all Canadians. But, restoring the attractiveness and security of The Middle Class is an exclusionary and potentially dangerous goal if we do not also restore faith in merit-based social mobility. And that may prove to be the most difficult challenge facing those on the hustings and in the policy boardrooms this year.
This study was revealed at two forums in Ottawa and Toronto on “Economic Projections for Canadians 2015: a focus on jobs” on January 14 and 15, 2015, and form the basis of focused discussion and research in the months leading to the next federal election. The full survey results can be found on the media page on www.pollara.com.
Craig Worden is executive vice-president of Pollara Strategic Insights (www.pollara.com). Andrew Cardozo writes a regular column for the Hill Times and is president of the Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy (www.thepearsoncentre.ca)

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