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It’s election year, only 10% financially secure, Pearson-Pollara poll

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January 29, 2015

It’s election year, only 10% financially secure, Pearson-Pollara poll

By Craig Worden and Andrew Cardozo

From The Hill Times

Public displays high levels of financial stress, low confidence in social mobility, and pessimism about the future of Canada’s middle class.

The election is approaching and all party leaders are talking about the middle class, growing inequality and growing insecurity.

This, while one-in-10 (10 per cent) Canadians feels financially secure, a new Pearson Centre-Pollara survey shows less than four-in-10 Canadians (37 per cent) are “getting ahead, with some savings” and 45 per cent are “just getting by, with no savings.” Less than one-in-10 (eight per cent) says they are falling behind on their monthly expenses.

Pollara was asked by the Pearson Centre to design and conduct this study to better understand the concept of ‘The Middle Class,’ their concerns, and the public policy solutions that should be considered. However, no exclusively middle-class issues emerged from the study. We discovered that almost all Canadians are feeling the same financial stress and exhibiting the same pessimism about the future of our middle-class, whether they identified as middle-class or not. The survey reveals a story of Canadians feeling pocketbook pressure from all corners, with no relief in sight. In an election year, when all party leaders are making appeals to “The Middle Class,” our study reveals potential inadequacies and required nuances to this pitch.

Pollara Strategic Insights conducted the survey in partnership with the Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy from Nov. 3-5, 2014. The online survey was conducted among a randomly-selected sample of 1,003 Canadians aged 18 and older. As a guideline, the margin of error for a probability sample of this size is ±3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The survey results were published and presented as part of a Pollara-Pearson Centre report entitled “In Search of the Middle Class: Canadians Under Financial Stress.” The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current gender, age, and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire population of Canadians aged 18 and older. Any discrepancies in or between numeric totals are due to rounding.

Throughout the survey, Canadians express concerns about a variety of current and future pocketbook issues, painting a picture of a population that is under financial stress:

The most important issues facing Canadians and their families today are “money, finances, income”-related issues (29 per cent), followed by employment/job-related issues (11 per cent), health issues (11 per cent), and concerns related to the economy (10 per cent). Significant numbers of Canadians also mention other personal finance issues, including references to the cost of gas, utility bills, debt payments, and groceries.

Looking to the future, more than three-quarters of Canadians are worried about the cost of health care when they get older (79 per cent) and having enough savings for when they want to retire (76 per cent).

Only 44 per cent of employed Canadians are optimistic that they will get promoted at their current job, and eight-in-10 (80 per cent) say that their salary has not kept pace with their cost of living.

A majority of Canadian parents of children aged 18 or older (56 per cent) say that they will not be able to afford the costs of post-secondary education for their children. A majority (55 per cent) also says that their children are having trouble finding work in their field.

From a list of issues, Canadians felt that addressing healthcare costs for Canada’s aging population (44 per cent), the economy (38 per cent), and retirement security and pensions (36 per cent) should be top priorities for the federal government. Other issues that received lower “top priority” rankings were taxes (31 per cent), terrorism (26 per cent), jobs for youth (24 per cent), debt reduction (21 per cent), disease outbreaks (19 per cent), increasing post-secondary education costs (17 per cent), and affordable childcare (16 per cent). Notably, 87 per cent also agreed that income inequality was an important public issue, with 85 per cent agreeing, “income inequality is no longer about the gap between rich and poor, but rather the very rich and everyone else.”

When asked to choose which classification best describes their social and financial place in society, half (52 per cent) of Canadians identified as middle class, followed by more than a third (36 per cent) who identified as working class. About one-in-10 (nine per cent) identified as poor and three per cent identified as upper class.

Quebecers (73 per cent) were much more likely to identify as middle class, followed by Alberta (57 per cent), the Prairies (Manitoba/Saskatchewan) (47 per cent), British Columbia (46 per cent), the Atlantic provinces (44 per cent), and Ontario (43 per cent).

Men (57 per cent) were more likely than women (47 per cent) to identify as middle class.

Canadians in the $100,000+ (74 per cent) and $60,000-$100,000 (67 per cent) household income brackets were more likely to identify as middle class than those in the $20,000-$60,000 (34 per cent) and under $20,000 (14 per cent) brackets. Notably, just 10 per cent of those in the $100,000+ income bracket identified as upper class.

Among those identifying as middle class, 52 per cent were employed full-time, 60 per cent were parents, and 82 per cent were homeowners.

Among the most troubling findings in the study, was a significant lack of public confidence that merit-based social mobility exists in Canadian society and a significant lack of optimism about the future of the Canadian middle class. Only 49 per cent agreed that they were confident that they could move beyond their current socio-economic class through hard work—with just 10 per cent strongly agreeing with this sentiment. And, just 45 per cent agreed that they were optimistic about the future of the Canadian middle class—again, with few (eight per cent) expressing strong agreement. So, the much-vaunted “middle class” is no longer the attractive, accessible destination it once was. This acts as an obstacle of cynicism and negativity for those pursuing fading aspirational notions.

Notably, only 20 per cent of the self-identified poor (20 per cent) are confident about merit-based social mobility. The working class (47 per cent) and middle class (53 per cent) are split. Seven-in-10 (73 per cent) of those identifying as upper class are confident.

Just a quarter (24 per cent) of the self-identified poor are optimistic about the future of the middle class. The working class (45 per cent) and middle class (48 per cent) are split. The upper class (62 per cent) is most likely to be optimistic.

As politicians and policy wonks go forth into 2015, our study waves a caution flag when invoking “The Middle Class.” Such an appeal makes logical sense in terms of both politics and policy, but it cannot be a simple appeal to a group of people representing just half of Canadians. The middle class needs to be seen as a secure, attractive, attainable home and destination—as it once was. We can return to this perspective with policies that strengthen and expand the middle class. Policies that relieve financial stress are a logical first step, with the added benefit that they speak to the challenges and concerns of all Canadians. But, restoring the attractiveness and security of the middle class is an exclusionary and potentially dangerous goal if we do not also restore faith in merit-based social mobility. And that may prove to be the most difficult challenge facing those on the hustings and in the policy boardrooms this year.

This study was revealed at two forums in Ottawa and Toronto on “Economic Projections for Canadians 2015: a focus on jobs” on Jan. 14 and 15, 2015, and form the basis of focused discussion and research in the months leading to the next federal election. The full survey results can be found on the media page on www.pollara.com.

Craig Worden is executive vice-president of Pollara Strategic Insights (www.pollara.com). Andrew Cardozo writes a regular column for the Hill Times and is president of the Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy (www.thepearsoncentre.ca)

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Craig Worden is executive vice-president of Pollara Strategic Insights (www.pollara.com). Andrew Cardozo \ is president of the Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy (www.thepearsoncentre.ca)

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