The Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy

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A strong Liberal Govt should get moving (Cardozo)

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September 26, 2021

A strong Liberal Govt should get moving (Cardozo)

By Andrew Cardozo

Trudeau’s position strengthened to do the big things

While all five parties have roughly the same number of the seats as they had before the election, the dynamics and relevant strength have changed.

In April 2013, days after Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party he spoke at an event to mark the 50th anniversary of Lester B Pearson’s taking office (full disclosure, hosted by the Pearson Centre). Interestingly, he said that if he were fortunate enough to be prime minister he hoped he would be able to the kinds of big things Pearson did.

He has done some big things and he now has an open runway to do more. Ironically, he faces a very similar House of Commons as Pearson did, a conservative official opposition and two smaller parties, the NDP and a fourth party in the opposition which pursued Quebec jurisdictional issues, the Social Credit/Ralliement Créditistes. And the proportions were similar such that the Pearson always had various options for opposition support to push through his ambitious agenda.

While Trudeau does not have a majority government, the case can be made that what he did get was a majority in effect, with opposition parties which may goad him here or there, but who have been forced into a compliant relationship.

He has a strong minority with opposition parties that have been enfeebled or have hit their glass ceiling, and are definitely not in a position to go into another election. In fact, expect all parties to do everything they can to avoid an early election. After they all spent five weeks slamming the early election call, they have painted themselves into their own corners, incapable of causing another election.

Why did the Liberals want to go to the polls when they did? It seemed to be best time to go and sooner rather than later to get that majority, the goal they could never speak of.

Conservative Erin O’Toole did not seem to be catching on but in reality only had one way to go – up. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh was doing well with a respectable showing in the opinion polls and could well have been on a strong upward trajectory. The Bloc’s Yves-François Blanchet was in a static mode in a bit of a rut. The Green’s Annamie Paul was evidently in a civil war in her own party. And Maxime Bernier, well, one could hope he would grow a bit and take the edge off any Conservative surge.

Call the Liberals Machiavellian or just plain lucky, while they didn’t get the majority, the result of the election has neutralized all their opponents because of these dynamics.

With the election over, let’s look at the opposition leaders. Erin O’Toole is going to spend most of his time fighting for his political life within his own party. He did much better than expected but he has one of the toughest jobs. Leading a big tent party that is the Conservatives, while not in government, is awfully difficult. Call it the battle between the moderates and the far right or between the pragmatists and the purists, it’s next to impossible to keep everyone happy. And they don’t use Marquis of Queensbury rules with former leaders!

Jagmeet Singh came into his own in this campaign, the most popular leader, but Canadians just didn’t increase his vote count. Yes, those “red New Democrats” went back to their other home, but they do that every time on election day, when it really counts (with the exception of the Orange wave in 2011).
Yves-François Blanchet, found the hook he needed in the English debate but also hit his glass ceiling. Try as they might, the Bloc just can’t get past the Liberals in Quebec, and then there’s that crazy uncle at the dinner table, Quebec Premier François Legault. Suddenly the man Blanchet claimed he was speaking for, wanted to go to the dance with another suiter. Ouch! Undermined!

The impressive Annamie Paul had been so undermined by her own party that she could not run a national party. The Green Party should hang its head in shame at the way they treated her.

And Maxime Bernier, a manna from heaven for the Liberals. Going from 1.6% in 2019 to 5% in this election, the majority of which comes from the Conservative column, the People’s Party blunted the latter’s ability to win, and yet they have no seats. They just hang over O’Toole’s head like an anvil threatening to break loose.

If Trudeau does want to rival Pearson in legacy, the field is all his, alone. The breakdown of seats may be the same as the last Parliament, but the power dynamics are very different, and from the Liberal perspective it was a pivotal election, hardly inconsequential.

In his first six years he did the Canada Child Benefit, seriously expanded pensions, put a price on carbon and legalized marijuana as he planned….and got some way on reconciliation. And then he succeeded hugely in the Canada-US-Mexico free trade agreement, negotiated patiently with that volatile US president; and created the most comprehensive response to Covid to get vaccines, and support individual and businesses. Not a shabby record.

Of course lots more to do, and here is opportunity not just to rival the greatest Canadian prime ministers of the past, but to do the things that Canada needs now and for many years to come: economic recovery and preparing the future of work, housing, national childcare, national standards for seniors care, speeded up work on reconciliation and climate change.

After that divisive election, he has the opportunity to set about a new modus operendi that is more conciliatory and productive. It is important to look closely at the People’s Party voters and see what the others can do to accommodate them better.

Andrew Cardozo is president of the Pearson Centre. He wrote a thesis on the 1908 election, Laurier’s fourth election, which had a very similar outcome to the previous one.